According to Jim Cullen Haplogroup I-S24 probability is 100%.
Haplo-I Subclades and probabilities are I-M223-Cont1 =>52%; I-M223-Cont2b =>41% I-M223-Cont2a =>7%
The following commentary on this gene is given by Wikipedia:
I2b1-M223 (M223, P219/S24, P220/S119, P221/S120, P222/U250/S118, P223/S117) Occurs at a moderate frequency among populations of Northwest Europe, with a peak frequency in the region of Lower Saxony in central Germany; minor offshoots appear in Moldavia and Russia (especially around Vladimir, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and the Republic of Moldovia)