|
Page
1
Introduction
The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the genetic and genealogical data of
male
descendants of Aaron Stark [1608-1685] having the surname
"Stark." This report will provide explanations of how we have
arrived at certain conclusions; identify
reoccurring haplotypes that can identify
probable male descendants of Aaron; determine the probable ancestral
haplotype of Aaron; and discuss the rate of mutation of the Y-DNA of
Aaron's descendants.
There will be descriptions of differences
(or mutations) observed between members at one or more DYS Markers.
(See DYS Marker Definition). Because one differs from another at one or more of the markers discussed is not a bad sign nor are the matches a good sign.
Enough marker matches merely explains relatedness between individuals while not enough matches
explains non-relatedness of Individuals.
All
of the male individuals discussed in this report have the surname Stark or
Starks and have been found through genealogical research to be descendants of Aaron
Stark [1608-1685] of Connecticut. The Genetic
Results confirms there is a high
probability these men all have a common ancestor who lived within the
previous 20 generations. (Click HERE to see Lineage
Table). (Use Back Button to
return to this text.)
Background
The origins of the Stark surname in North America
began with the arrival of Aaron Stark in New England
between 1630 and 1637 —
most likely from Scotland or England. He was born about 1608 and died in 1685 in
New London County, Connecticut. His service in the Pequot War under
Captain John Mason in May of 1637, was the first record we have of him
in Connecticut. He eventually settled in New London County, Connecticut in
a region that later became Groton Township.
Those who have participated in the
Stark Family Y-DNA Project
have been found to be descendants of many genetically unrelated families having the surname
Stark or one of it's derivatives. The majority of the participants are descendants of families
that settled in New Hampshire,
Virginia, and Connecticut. Contrary to the beliefs of some earlier researchers, the Stark Family Y-DNA Project has clearly
proven the descendants of Aaron Stark are not related to the descendants of the New Hampshire and
Virginia families within Genealogical time defined as after the
usage of surnames became common in Europe in the 13th and 14th centuries.
Those males with
genetic results and the surname Stark have been genealogically proven to
share Aaron Stark as a common ancestor and are descendants of two of his sons — Aaron Stark
II [1654-1701] and William Stark, Sr. [1664-1730]. It is known with certainty that Aaron Stark lived approximately
between the years 1608 and 1685 — well after the establishment of surnames in
Europe.
A conservative probability of 80% or greater — for
the purposes of this discussion — will
be considered a confidence threshold of sufficient probability to declare that any two individuals compared most likely
did have a common ancestor
that lived within the number of generations specified. Probabilities below this
threshold will be deemed insufficient. This threshold is intended
as a guideline and should be the subject of further
interpretation when
the plots approach 80% from the direction of greater
or lesser probabilities.
This population of individuals has been variously tested over Panel 1 (Markers 1-12),
Panel 2 (Markers 13-25), and Panel 3 (Markers 26-37) as will be
presented in the Genetic
Results Table. One or more
participants can have the same haplotype over
any combination of these Panels . For the purposes of this
discussion, the most
common haplotype over a selected group of DYS Markers will be referred to as Haplotype 1. Other lesser occurring
haplotypes will be numbered 2 thru N (Haplotype 2,
Haplotype 3,..., Haplotype N). All genetic comparisons of lesser occurring
haplotypes in this report will be compared to the most common
haplotype.
Terminology
Before we begin, here are some explanations of common terms used in these
Reports.
|
Allele
Values: |
A DNA sequence
that repeats at a certain locus or place. The allele
value is the number of times the sequence repeats. (Pronounced
uh-LEEL)
|
|
DYS
Markers: |
(DNA Y-chromosome Segment number):
The "name" of a marker on the Y-chromosome. It
is assigned based on a nomenclature system controlled by
the HUGO Gene Nomenclature Committee, which assigns DYS
numbers to newly discovered markers. DYS markers have
"allele values" which are observed from DNA samples
supplied to a laboratory by the Program Members. In our analysis,
there will be 37 total DYS markers discussed. DYS-393 is the first
marker followed by DYS-390, etc; until the last marker designated as
DYS-438. {Return to Text} |
|
Haplotype: |
A haplotype is defined as a collection of
two or more DYS
markers (DNA Y-chromosome Segment number). Our DYS
Markers have been organized into three separate haplotypes identified
as numbered "Panels." For example, DYS Markers 1 through 12
would be Panel 1; DYS Markers 13 through 25 would be Panel 2; and DYS Markers
26 through 37 would be Panel 3. The collection of DYS Allele values in
each Panel or any combination of these panels represent a haplotype for each of the
Members. {Return to Text} |
|
Modal Haplotype:
|
Haplotype defined as the most common allele value at each
marker for a Group of Individuals. |
|
Ancestral
Haplotype: |
For this
report, the Ancestral Haplotype derived from the
Deductive Triangulation Method has been assigned to the genealogically
determined common ancestor of all Members included
in this analysis. [Click HERE
to review Appendix 1 entitled "Defining
the Ancestral Haplotype of Aaron Stark [1608-1685]."]
Use Back Button to
return to this text. |
|
Triangulation: |
A
deductive method of
determining an Ancestral Haplotype. In Genetic
Genealogy, this is a process for determining the
possible Y chromosome
DNA of a male ancestor by evaluating the allele values
at select DYS markers in the haplotypes;
focusing specifically on comparisons of direct paternal line descendants of two or more
known and different sons of a common male ancestor. (See Charles F. Kerchner, Jr.'s article entitled "Triangulation Method for Deducing the Ancestral
Haplotype in Y-DNA Surname Projects.") Use Back Button to
return to this text. |
|
Lineage: |
Each
Member has submitted his genealogically researched
direct male lineage to Aaron Stark. It is presumed these
are accurate and have been properly researched. Summary lineages
for
all G1a and G1b Members are presented in the
G1 Genealogical Lineage Table. Use Back Button to
return to this text.
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Page
2
Group
1 Genetic
Results Table Introduction
The Genetic Results Table for Group 1 presents the allele
values available over 37 DYS Markers for each of the members. Cells
in the first two columns with this background
color are descendants of William Stark [1664-1730] and
are Members of Group 1a; while cells in the first two columns with this background
color are descendants of Aaron Stark II [1654-1701] and
are Members of Group 1b. These Columns reveal from which of the two sons of Aaron Stark I
each member descends —
according to the genealogical research. The
"letter" preceding each Kit # will be the
"Letter Code ID" for each Member used when discussing
genetic comparisons. [Comparison of A-B, for example.] Members
in Subgroup 1C have genetic results suggesting they belong to
Group 1; but because there is no genealogy information, they
have been placed in this Subgroup.
For
the purpose of this report, a Mutation
occurs at a DYS Marker column when a Members allele value differs
from the Modal Haplotype allele value in that column. For example,
in the Group 1a, Panel 1 Markers 1 thru 12, all of the allele values in the Marker 2 (DYS-390)
column are 24 —
resulting in no observed mutations in this column.
However, in the Marker 1 (DYS-393) column, the allele value 13
occurs more often than the allele value 12. Therefore, Members
F, R, and S —
having the allele value 12 in the Marker 1 column —
have their Marker 1 allele values highlighted in yellow;
indicating each has a DYS-393 mutation relative to the more
common allele value of 13.
This method of determining mutations results in a minimum number
of mutations for the population tested. The Modal Haplotype is
presented in Row 1 and is defined as the
37 marker G1 Modal Haplotype.
Using
genealogical and genetic data, the deductive triangulation method devised by Charles F. Kerchner, Jr.
was employed
to define the Ancestral Haplotype of Aaron Stark I. [See Charles F. Kerchner, Jr.'s article entitled "Triangulation Method for Deducing the Ancestral
Haplotype in Y-DNA Surname Projects."]
The Ancestral Haplotype, presented in Row 2, and the Modal
Haplotype, have a perfect 37/37 match ratio. Cells with this background
color have allele values equal to the Modal Haplotype at
that marker. They will also
agree with the Ancestral Haplotype of
Aaron Stark I [1608-1685]. Appendix
1 entitled "Defining the Ancestral
Haplotype of Aaron Stark [1608-1685]" has a more complete analysis of
this process.
Members Y-DNA Results are ROW organized in the
same order they are presented in the Group 1 Lineage Table;
presented after the Results Table. The Lineage Table presents a
summary lineage for each Member of Groups 1a & 1b. Clicking on the
"Kit#" in the Results or Lineage Tables will take you to a
more detailed lineage
presentation for that Member; presented in the
G1 Lineage Web Page.
Groups 1c & 1d are presented in the following Y-DNA Results Table —
but will not be included in the analysis that follows nor in
the G1 Genealogical Lineage Table. Although members of Group 1c will have
genetic matches to members of Groups 1a & 1b, the lack of
Genealogical lineage information prevents using their Y-DNA
results in the following analysis. Although Members of Group 1d
have genealogy suggesting they should share Aaron Stark
[1608-1685] as a common ancestor, when their Y-DNA results are
compared to Members of Groups 1a & 1b, the comparisons clearly
reveal they could not share a common ancestor with these members
within Genealogical time (after the calendar year 1400).
If the Allele value in the Marker 37 column is presented
with a Red colored font,
this member has genetic results beyond 37 markers. These results
are presented on the 67 Marker
Y-DNA Test Results Web page.
According
to FTDNA, those DYS Markers labeled in RED
have a higher mutation rate than those Markers not labeled in Red. Haplogroup
R-M269 is a shorthand notation for Haplogroup R1b1a2. Red
colored font for a member's Haplogroup indicates a FTDNA
prediction which has not been confirmed. However, the
confirmed Haplogroup of N17289 (O) & 48711 (D) predicts all members of
Groups 1a & 1b most likely will belong to Haplogroup R1b1a2a1a1a
(shorthand notation is R-U106).
|
|
Page 3
Group 1 Y-DNA Genetic Results
Table
|
|
Panel 1 (1-12) Haplotype |
Panel 2 (13-25) Haplotype |
- |
Panel
3 (26-37) Haplotype |
| Marker
# |
<====> |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
- |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
K
I
T
#
![]() |
H
a
p
l
o
![]() |
3
9
3
![]() |
3
9
0
![]() |
1
9
![]() |
3
9
1
![]() |
3
8
5
a
![]() |
3
8
5
b
![]() |
4
2
6
![]() |
3
8
8
![]() |
4
3
9
![]() |
3
8
9
-
1
![]() |
3
9
2
![]() |
3
8
9
-
2
![]() |
4
5
8
![]() |
4
5
9
a
![]() |
4
5
9
b
![]() |
4
5
5
![]() |
4
5
4
![]() |
4
4
7
![]() |
4
3
7
![]() |
4
4
8
![]() |
4
4
9
![]() |
4
6
4
a
![]() |
4
6
4
b
![]() |
4
6
4
c
![]() |
4
6
4
d
![]() |
4
6
4
e
![]() |
4
6
0
![]() |
G
A
T
A
H
4
![]() |
Y
C
A
I
I
a
![]() |
Y
C
A
I
I
b
![]() |
4
5
6
![]() |
6
0
7
![]() |
5
7
6
![]() |
5
7
0
![]() |
C
D
Y
a
![]() |
C
D
Y
b
![]() |
4
4
2
![]() |
4
3
8
![]() |
| G1
Modal Haplotype |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
| Ancestral
Haplotype |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
Group
1a: Descendants of William Stark [1664-1730] --- son of Aaron Stark
[1608-1685] |
|
76234
A
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
98044
B
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
230493
B1 |
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
78077
C
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
178528
C1
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
279117
C2 |
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
48711
D
|
4R-U106
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
37 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
119763
E
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
35 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
165568
E1
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
#Steve
1E1a |
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
- |
29 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
25 |
14 |
19 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
11 |
12 |
19 |
22 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
12 |
12 |
|
176520
E2
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
39 |
12 |
12 |
|
9Z5ZG
1F
|
R-M269 |
12 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
12 |
12 |
|
16335
G
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
80860
H
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
74961
I
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
281649
I1 |
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
18 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
115456
J
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
202299
J1
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
63737
K
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
35 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
75156
L
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
12 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
37 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
194718
5L1
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
12 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
37 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
78078
M
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
203166
M1
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
257675
M1a
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
N56748
N
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
154414
N1
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
N66901
2N2
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
247428
N3
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
N17289
O
|
4R-U106 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
Subgroup
1B: Descendants of Aaron Stark (Junior)
[1654-1700] --- son of Aaron Stark [1608-1685] |
|
98140
P
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
135468
Q
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
87105
3R
|
R-M269
|
12 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
115764
S
|
R-M269 |
12 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
172378
S1
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
37 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
194579
S2
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
30 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
206763
S3
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
102286
T
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
18 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
233230
T1
|
R-M269 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
|
Subgroup
1C: Genetic Matches to Subgroup 1A & 1B / Surname Stark or
Starks / Genealogy
Incomplete |
| Marker
# |
<====> |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
- |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
|
1180952
|
R-M269
|
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
16 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
|
11 |
11 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
36 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
| |
Subgroup
1D: Genealogy Suggests Aaron [1608-1695] was Ancestor; are not genetic matches
to 1A or
1B |
| Marker
# |
<====> |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
- |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
|
176667
|
R-M269
|
13 |
23 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
26 |
15 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
18 |
|
11 |
10 |
19 |
23 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
38 |
38 |
11 |
12 |
284645
|
R-M269
|
13 |
23 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
17 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) |
Comments:
The genealogy suggest #76667 is a descendant of Zephaniah Stark and
Zephaniah's Father, William Stark (Junior). The H37 haplotype of #76667 was
genetically compared to that of #48711 (Subgroup 1A), a known descendant of
William Stark (Junior). Their genetic distance was 15. There is a .12%
probability they share a common ancestor who lived within the last 20
generations. The odds greatly favor that they have not shared a
common male ancestor within thousands of years making it genetically
impossible William
Stark (Junior) was a common ancestor of #76667 and #48711. Either the
1872 publication entitled "History of
Rutland, Vermont," by Caverly reporting Zephaniah was born in
England is correct; or there was a non-paternal
event in the generation of William (Junior) or in one of the generations
that follows. Genetic results from a second descendant of Zephaniah could
resolve this issue in the future. |
|
2) |
Comments: The genealogical research of
# 84645 Stark reveals with reasonable accuracy he is a descendant of David Stark of Scott
County, Indiana;
reported by the genealogy to be a son of Daniel Stark [1746-1810]. Daniel
Stark had a son named Jonathan D. Stark. The genealogy suggests #84645
shares Aaron Stark [1608-1685] as a common ancestor. The H25 haplotype of #
84645 was genetically compared to that of #16335 (Subgroup
1A), a known
descendant of Jonathan D. Stark [1768-1828]. Their genetic distance was 6.
There is a 12.98% probability they share a common ancestor who lived within
the last 20 generations. The odds greatly favor they have not shared a
common male ancestor in excess of 5,000 years. This suggests David
Stark may have been a member of an unrelated Stark family living in Kentucky,
rather than a son of Daniel Stark; or there was a non-paternal event in the
generation of Daniel [1746-1810] or one of the generations that follows.
Genetic results from a second descendant of David could resolve this issue
in the future. [Any Mismatch over Markers 22,23,24, & 25 counts as
a genetic distance of 1. Click HERE to
see Note 3 below the Results Table.] |
|
|
|
Page 4
Group 1 Genealogical
Lineage Table Introduction
The
following Genealogical Lineage Table shows the direct male line
from each member to their earliest known ancestor. The Common Ancestor of all members, Aaron Stark
[1608-1685], is presented in the Gen 12 column. Note that
the Kit #'s of the program members are variously shown under the
column's labeled Gen 0 through Gen 3. This is because there are four living generations participating in the
project. The
following would be the number of generations Aaron Stark lived before
the members: 12 generations before those listed under
Gen 0; 11 generations before those listed under Gen 1; 10
generations before those listed under Gen 2; and 9 generations
before those listed under Gen 3.
The
Panels/Mismatches column reports the Panel haplotypes that were
reported
for the Member in that row and the
number of mismatches over each Panel — relative to the
G1
Modal Haplotype. The 'ID" column assigns a
letter code to each row for the purpose of discussion when
making genetic comparisons. [Comparison of A to B for example.]
The row organization is the same as the Member organization in
the above Y-DNA Results Table.
When
reading from left to right, each row will eventually encounter
a common ancestor associated with a member in an adjacent row. For example,
A and B have a common ancestor named Moses, reported in the
Gen 6 column. A, B, and C have a common ancestor
named Jonathan J., reported in the Gen 7 column. This continues to
occur reading left to right until Gen 12 —
where Aaron I is reported to be the common
ancestor of all of the members.
The number of Unique
Transmission Events
(Births) in a generation can be found
under the Gen number for that column. A UTE occurs when the
Y-DNA of the Father is
transmitted to his son. In each generation, the total births are
the sum of all of the individuals listed in that Gen column. The total number of Births
reported in Gen Columns 0 through 11 are presented
in the Gen 12 column. For the purposes of this discussion, the
persons reported in the Generation 11 column are "Genealogical
Branch Progenitors."
William
Stark (Senior) [1664-1730] is the progenitor of the branch
consisting of his descendants
with this background color. Aaron Stark II [1654-1701] is
the progenitor of the branch consisting of his descendants
with this background color. The common ancestor of all of
the members, Aaron Stark I [1608-1685], is presented
in the Gen 12 column.
Group 1 Genealogical Lineage
Table
Compared to 37 marker G1 Modal Haplotype;
Cells With this Background Show Direct Lineage of Members to
Aaron Stark I
Cells in adjacent rows with this background differ from Modal and
have same mutations
| ID |
Panels
Mismatches |
Gen
-2
UTE=1
1999-2033
|
Gen
-1
UTE=11
1965-1999
|
Gen
0
UTE=28
1931-1965
|
Gen
1
UTE=33
1897-1931
|
Gen
2
UTE=33
1863-1897
|
Gen
3
UTE=32
1829-1863
|
Gen
4
UTE=31
1795-1829
|
Gen
5
UTE=26
1761-1795
|
Gen
6
UTE=19
1727-1761
|
Gen
7
UTE=11
1693-1727
|
Gen
8
UTE=6
1659-1693
|
Gen
9
UTE=2
1625-1659
|
Gen
10
Total=233
1591-1625
|
| A |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0) |
AYG = 35
8 Gen |
-----
|
76234 |
Father |
Samuel
G.
1888-1967 |
James M.
1824-1905 |
Moses
1793-1860 |
Jonathan
J.
1778-1850 |
James
1741-1821 |
Jonathan
1712-1764 |
William
Jr.
1690-1736 |
William
Sr.
1664-1730
Branch
Progenitor |
Aaron
I
1608-1685
Common
Ancestor |
| B |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0)
|
98044
AYG=29.6
10 Gen |
Father
|
John
E.
1904-1971 |
George
H.
1882-1948 |
Robert
S.
1858-1911 |
Thompson
1829-1899 |
| B1 |
P1/P2
(0)/(0)
|
AYG=33.1
8 Gen |
----- |
230493 |
Father |
Franklin R.
1873-1953
|
Mardecai
1834-1885
|
Enoch
1794-1864 |
| C |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(1)/(0)
|
AYG=30
8 Gen |
----- |
78077
|
Father |
William
F.
1848-1929 |
Carroll
B.
1821-1891 |
|
C1 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(1)/(0)
|
AYG=35.8
9 Gen |
|
178528 |
Carroll
Edd 1930-2011 |
Edward
M.
1900-1997 |
Esset
A.
1873-1968 |
Norborne
P.
1819-1880 |
Adin
H.
1795-1850 |
| C2 |
P1
(0)
|
AYG=32
9 Gen |
279117 |
Father |
Orion Lee
1896-1943 |
Henry S.
1862-1934 |
John H.
1832-1864 |
Daniel G.
1800-1860 |
Aaron
1776-1837 |
| D |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1)
|
AYG=33
9 Gen |
48711
|
Father |
William
A.
1905-1959 |
Jona'
E.
1882-1935 |
Simeon E.
1858-1893 |
Elisha
S.
1811-1870
|
Abraham
1781-1857 |
Daniel
1746-1810 |
| E |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1)
|
AYG=32
9 Gen |
119763
|
Father |
Max
W.
1896-1971 |
William
H.
1855-1917 |
Simeon S.
1820-1893
|
Jesse A.
1802-1877 |
| E1 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0) |
AYG=29.2
9 Gen |
165568 |
Father |
James
V.
1871-1924 |
James
A.
1849-1933 |
| E1a |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1)
|
AYG=31
9 Gen |
#Steve |
Father |
Elmer S.
1887-1969
|
Francis M.
1850-1933
|
Jesse B.
1830-1908
|
| E2 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1) |
AYG=35.3
8 Gen |
176520
|
Father |
William
H.
[----] |
William
Hugh
1890-1977 |
Abraham
H.
1849-1938 |
Stephen
D.
1808-1869 |
| F |
P1/P2/P3
(1)/(0)/(0)
|
AYG=32
9 Gen |
9Z5ZG
|
Father |
Robert
L.
1896-1956 |
Walter
1871-1898 |
Rice
A.
1821-1900 |
William
1804-1870 |
| G |
P1/P2
(0)/(0)
|
AYG=35.5
8 Gen |
----- |
16335 |
Father |
Elmore
M.
1892-1979 |
Israel
M.
1857-1936 |
Jona'
A.
1815-1880
|
Jona'
D.
1768-1828 |
| H |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0)
|
AYG=33.2
9 Gen |
80860 |
Father |
John
Harold
1907-1956 |
Marion
G.
1868-1918 |
John
Henry
1832-1915 |
Christopher
1802-1862
|
James
V.
1773-1853
|
Christopher
1747-1807 |
| I |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/0
|
AYG=35.8
8 Gen |
----- |
74961 |
Father |
Wesley
1894-1951 |
John
W.
1844-1894 |
John
A.
1811-1874
|
Benjamin
1783-1831
|
John
1756-1841 |
| I1 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(1)/(0)
|
AYG=35.4
8 Gen |
---- |
281649
M25=18 |
Father |
Mark E.
1891-1978
|
William I.
1857-1894 |
Elijah
A.
1820-1890 |
| J |
P1/P2/P3
(1)/(0)/(0)
|
AYG=38.7
7 Gen |
----- |
----- |
115456
|
Father |
Harry
L.
1879-1968 |
Bethuel G.
1840-1908 |
Caleb
1793-1876 |
Joseph
1746-1807 |
| J1 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0)
|
AYG=34.5
8 Gen |
----- |
202299 |
Father |
Larkin
M.
1884-1923 |
Larkin
1838-1896 |
James
1804-1873 |
Joseph
1776-1814 |
Jonathan
Jr.
1740-1802 |
| K |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1)
|
AYG=35.5
9 Gen |
----- |
----- |
63737
1928-2011
|
Leslie
O.
1893-1971
|
Samuel
A.
1859-1939 |
Franklin
S.
1831-1899
|
Prince
L.
1795-1862
|
John
1754-1825
|
Moses
1716-1797 |
| L |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(1)/(2)
|
AYG=36.3
8 Gen |
M21=30
M26=12
M34=37
|
75156
|
Father |
William
L.
1898-1956 |
Nathan
T.
1863-1917 |
Isaac
A.
1822-1867
|
Daniel
1793-????
|
Daniel
A.
1761-????
|
William,
III
1723-1795 |
| L1 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(1)/(2)
|
AYG=34.8
10 Gen |
194718 |
???? |
???? |
???? |
???? |
???? |
???? |
| M |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0)
|
AYG=32.6
8 Gen |
----- |
78078 |
Father |
William
O.
1869-1951
|
John
L.
1848-1926 |
Asahel
L.
1817-1881
|
Daniel
R.
1788-1820
|
Asahel
1755-1821
|
Chris
Jr.
1728-1785 |
Christopher
1698-1777 |
| M1 |
P1/P2/P3
(1)/(0)/(0) |
AYG=38.9
9 Gen |
203166
M9=13 |
Father |
Earle
H.
1922-1988 |
Jay
W.
1897-1960 |
Jared
H.
1858-1911 |
Milo
1829-1918 |
Isaac
1805-1874 |
Nathan
1762-1812
|
| M1a |
P1/P2
(0)/(0)
|
AYG=34.9
8 Gen |
------ |
257675 |
Father |
Merrill A.
1887-1942 |
George M.
1862-1933 |
Joshua
1813-1890 |
Benjamin
1787-1854 |
| N |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1)
|
AYG=32.9
9 Gen |
N56748
M30=14 |
Father |
Harold
V.
1904-1984 |
John
Kneff
1877-1950 |
William
1844-1920 |
John
K.
1812-1881
|
Daniel
1793-1825
|
John
1763-1841 |
| N1 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1)
|
AYG=39.6
8 Gen |
------ |
154414
M30=14
|
Father |
Virgil
E.
1925-2000 |
William
E.
1871-1944 |
William
P.
1830-1908 |
Henry
1804-1882 |
| N2 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1)
|
AYG=35.3
8 Gen |
M30=15
?Back Mutate |
N66901
|
Father |
Kern
R.
Kelly
1890-1973 |
D.
F. Stark
T.
B. Kelly
1851-1916
|
William
A.
1824-1885
|
Isaac
1796-1869
|
| N3 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0)
|
AYG=38.3
7 Gen |
----- |
----- |
247428 |
Father |
Bert
Harold
1876-1942 |
Josiah
1834-1885 |
Egbert
1813-1882 |
Aaron Jr.
1755-1835 |
Aaron
1734-1778 |
| O |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(1)
|
AYG=35.4
8 Gen |
----- |
N17289
|
Father |
Lewis
C.
1891-1977 |
Leroy
H.
1865-1896 |
Henry
H.
1840-1900
|
Jeremiah
1798-1870
|
Abijah
1768-1842
|
Nathan
1743-1830
|
Daniel
1702-1758 |
| P |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0)
|
AYG=37.6
8 Gen |
----- |
98140 |
Father |
Horace
J.
1909-1995 |
William
H.
1873-1937
|
John
G.
1836-1912
|
Abiel
1806-1869
|
Nathan
II
1763-1837
|
Nathan
I
1725-1780
|
Abiel
(1st)
1689-1755 |
Aaron II
1654-1701
Branch
Progenitor |
| Q |
P1/P2
(0)/(0)
|
AYG=40.6
7 Gen |
----- |
----- |
135468 |
Father |
Lowell R.
1892-???? |
Clinton E.
1853-1918 |
Albert W.
1818-1895 |
Caleb
1766-1841 |
Abiel
(2nd)
1724-1770 |
| R |
P1/P2/P3
(1)/(1)/(0)
|
AYG=34.8
8 Gen |
----- |
87105
M1=12
|
Father |
Osmer
E.
1886-1964 |
Edward
1855-1908
|
Andrew
1821-1876
|
Reuben
1797-1877
|
Ebenezer
1768-1860
|
Stephen
II
1717-1777
|
Stephen
I
1686-1755 |
| S |
P1
(1)
|
AYG=35.8
8 Gen |
----- |
115764
M1=12
|
Father |
Samuel
A.
1894-1971
|
Samuel J.
1867-1952 |
Samuel
1828-1900 |
Norman S.
1796-1875 |
| S1 |
P1/P2/P3
(1)/(0)/(1) |
AYG=33.2
9 Gen |
172378 |
Father |
Gould
P.
1907-1980 |
Bernard
J.
1879-???? |
Byron
C.
1852-1928 |
James
A.
1815-1886 |
Roderick
1787-1858 |
Stephen
III
1766-1820 |
|
S2 |
P1/P2
(1)/(0) |
AYG=37.6
7 Gen |
----- |
----- |
194579 |
Father |
John
O.
1871-1928 |
John
D.
1841-1909 |
Charles
1794-1874 |
Samuel,
Jr.
1759-1834 |
Samuel
1722-1758 |
| S3 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0)
|
AYG=35.6
7 Gen |
------ |
------ |
206763 |
Father |
John
Joseph
1857-1920 |
Stephen
1823-1885 |
William
1790-1839 |
| T |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(1)/(1) |
AYG=31.4
9 Gen |
102286
|
Father |
Raymond
1891-1943 |
Samuel
A.
1864-1939 |
Aaron
1830-1899
|
John
Reid
1798-1880
|
John
II
1771-1844
|
John
1733-1822
|
Aaron
IV
1708-1772
|
Aaron III
1678-1744 |
| T1 |
P1/P2/P3
(0)/(0)/(0) |
AYG=37.3
8 Gen |
-------- |
233230 |
Father |
Elmer M.
1906-1996 |
Homer
1883-???? |
James W.
1844-1912 |
Aaron
1804-1864 |
Isaac
1758-1824 |
Amos
1717-1767 |
|
|
Page 5
Haplotype
Nomenclature
In
the following analysis, the Haplotype consisting of Markers 1
through 12 (Panel 1) will be designated
as H12; Markers 1-12 (Panel 1) combined with Markers 13-25
(Panel 2) will be designated as H25;
and Markers 1-12 (Panel 1) combined with Markers 13-25 (Panel 2) combined with
Markers 26037 (Panel 3) will be
designated H37. Referring to the Results table, the Modal
Haplotype over 37 markers is represented in the first row under
the Marker label row.
Analysis
of H12 Haplotypes
Those members of Group 1 having the H12 Modal Haplotype, when
genetically compared to each other, result in a 87.07%
probability they share a common ancestor who lived within the
last 20 generations — or within genealogical time.[1]
Members in Group 1 who have one mutation relative to the H12
Modal Haplotype, when compared to those members with no
mutations; have a range of probabilities from 57% to 60% share a common ancestor who lived with the last 20 generations.
Therefore, one mutation relative to the H12 Modal Haplotype cannot determine if
they share Aaron Stark [1608-1685] as a common ancestor within
Genealogical time.
Future potential G1 Members
with the surname Stark and confirmed Genealogical lineage with
genetic results equivalent to the H12 Modal Haplotype — most
likely will be descendants of Aaron Stark [1608-1685].
However, it is
suggested new members with one or more mutations relative to the
H12 Modal Haplotype; upgrade their test
to 25 markers, or even better, upgrade to 37
markers; the upgrades necessary to genetically confirm they
could share Aaron as a common ancestor with members of G1a
or G1b within Genealogical time.
________________
|
1) |
The time
predictor used for all of the comparisons is furnished
by Family Tree DNA and referred to as FTDNATiP™. The FTDNATiP™
results are based on the mutation rate study presented during
the 1st International Conference on Genetic Genealogy, on Oct.
30, 2004. The probabilities calculated take into consideration
the mutation rates for each individual marker being compared.
For more information, click HERE. |
H12 Haplotype
Life Expectancy Calculations (Markers 1 thru 12) [See
Appendix 2]
The genealogical data suggests there were 227 Births (UTE
transmissions). H12 is a 12 marker haplotype over Panel 1.
Members R & S had allele values of 12 at
DYS-393. Both are descendants of Ebenezer Starks
(Gen 5). Therefore, by triangulation, Ebenezer had the allele value of 12
at this marker. Because Ebenezer is the common ancestor of both, this
counts as 1 mutation at DYS-393 relative to the Ancestral Haplotype ---
because
Ebenezer Starks was the common source of the allele value of 12 for
Members R & S. Member F has an allele value of 12 at DYS-393 resulting
in a 2nd mutation at DYS-393. Referring to Table 1, Members J and M1
have independent mutations at DYS-439; resulting in third and fourth H12 haplotype mutations. Member S1 has an
allele value of 11 at DYS 385a; resulting in a fifth H12 haplotype
mutation while Member S2 has an allele value of 30 at DYS 389-2 resulting in
a sixth H12 haplotype mutation.
In
the H12 Haplotype, there were six observed mutations.
Solving Appendix 2 equation (1) for K=6; B=227; and M=12:
R=K/B*M=6/227*12=6/2724=(.0022) = the mutation rate based on
the total observed mutations in the H12 haplotypes
Solving for Appendix 2 equation (3):
(Average Life Expectancy of H12 Ancestral Haplotype) =1
/ [1 - (1 - 0.0022)12]= approximately
38.34 generations.
If equation (3) is solved using the FTDNA average assumed mutation rate
of (0.002) — the resulting number of generations will be
41.2. The member data will result in a H12 mutation rate that is approximately
the Standard mutation rate of 0.002.
|
|
Page 6
Analysis
of H25 Haplotypes
The
addition of the Panel 2 markers (13-25) to the Panel 1 markers
(1-12) improved
the probabilities dramatically. All
of the members with the H25 Modal Haplotype have a 99.12%
probability they share a common ancestor who lived within 20
generations. Members with one or more mutations relative to the
H25 Modal Haplotype — when compared to
the H25 Modal Haplotype —
have probabilities in the range between 93.4% and 95.04%, suggesting
these most likely share Aaron as a common ancestor within
genealogical time. The comparison of
the H25 Modal Haplotype to Member R resulted in a probability of 84.33%. While R remains
above the
confidence threshold,
when his H37 Haplotype, discussed in the next section, is
compared to the H37 Modal Haplotype, his probability improves to 99.4%,
thereby confirming he is shares Aaron Stark as a common ancestor.
In
the above Analysis of the H12 Haplotypes, there was insufficient
genetic evidence to determine the relatedness of S relative to
the H12 Modal Haplotype. S was not tested over
Panel 2; but Member R, as we will present over the H37 Modal
Haplotype, has a 99.4% probability he is a descendant of Aaron
— confirming S also
shares Aaron as a common ancestor, for R & S share Ebenezer
Stark, a descendant of Aaron, as a common ancestor (See lineage
for R & S on the Lineage Table)
The H25 Modal haplotype will most
likely identify men with the surname Stark or one of it's
derivatives as descendants of Aaron Stark [1608-1685]. While the
other H25 Profiles may also identify them as descendants of Aaron
Stark — they
most likely identify mutations that occurred in one or more generations
after Aaron Stark and may represent members of one or more of
his descendant branches.
How often these mutations occur depends on the generation in which the mutation was transmitted from
a father to his son.
H25 Haplotype
Life Expectancy Calculations (Markers 1 thru 25) [See
Appendix 2]
Member
S was not tested beyond Marker 12. S has a total of 6 UTE transmissions that must be subtracted from the total UTE transmissions. Referring to
Genetic Results Table, the total mutation count
will be 11.
Solving
equation (1) for K=11; B=221; and M=25
R=11/221*25=11/5525=(.00199)= the mutation rate based on
the total observed mismatches in the H25 haplotypes
Solving for Appendix 2 equation (3):
(Average Life Expectancy of H25 Ancestral Haplotype) =1
/ [1 - (1 - 0.00199)25]= approximately 20.57 generations
If the Standard mutation rate of (0.002) --- assumed in the FTDNA
literature --- is used in equation 3, the resulting number of generations will be
20.48. As more participants have been tested the member mutation
rate has begun to approximate the Standard
mutation rate of 0.002.
|
|
Page 7
Analysis
of the H37 Haplotypes
All
members having no mutations relative to the H37 Modal Haplotype have a
99.99% probability they share a common ancestor who lived within 20
generations; suggesting all share Aaron Stark as a common ancestor.
Members having one or more mutations relative to the H37 Modal Haplotype,
had a probability range of 99.1% to 99.88%. While Member F had partial results over
markers 26 thru 37, they were not complete and he has been excluded from
this discussion. The H37 Modal Haplotype will most
likely identify men with the surname Stark or one of it's
derivatives as descendants of Aaron Stark [1608-1685]. While the
other H 37 Haplotypes with one or mutations relative to the H37
Modal Haplotype may also identify them as descendants of Aaron
Stark — they
most likely identify mutations that occurred in one or more generations
after Aaron Stark and may represent members of one or more of
his descendant branches.
How often these mutations will occur depends on the generation in which the mutation was transmitted from
a father to his son along the respective descendant branches of
Aaron Stark [1608-1685].
H37 Haplotype
Life Expectancy Calculations (1 thru 37) [See
Appendix 2]
Member F does not have complete data over Markers 26 through 37.
His data will not be used in this analysis. Members B1, G, Q, S,
and S2 were not tested over Markers 26 through 37. These
members had a total of 34 UTE transmissions that must be
subtracted from the total UTE transmissions (227-34=156). Referring to Table 3, the total mutation count
will be 20.
Solving equation (1) for K=22; B=193; and M=37:
R=21/193*37=22/7141=(0.00308) = the mutation rate based on
the total observed mismatches in the H37 haplotypes
Solving for Appendix 2 equation (3):
(Average Life Expectancy of H37 Ancestral Haplotype) =1
/ [1 - (1 - 0.00308)37]= approximately
9.26 generations.
If the average assumed mutation rate of (0.002) --- assumed
in the FTDNA literature --- is used in equation 3, the resulting number of generations will be
14. The member data will result in a H37 mutation rate that is 154% higher than the Standard mutation rate of 0.002.
|
|
Page 8
Genetic Genealogy
Analysis of the Descendants of Aaron Stark [1608-1685]
Introduction
All
of the male individuals discussed in Part I of this report have been found to be descendants of Aaron
Stark [1608-1685] of Connecticut. The Genetic
Results Table presented in Part I suggests there is a high
probability these men all have a common ancestor who lived within the
previous 20 generations. The genealogy of the participants suggests all of
the members share Aaron Stark [1608-1685] as a common ancestor who lived
within the previous 13th generation relative to Member 98044 (B). [Click
HERE to see
the Genealogical Lineage Table presented in Part I.]
Part
II will analyze
the genetic results of members with 37 marker haplotypes.
[The combined DYS markers represented in Panels 1, 2, &
3, hereafter referred
to as the H37 Haplotype.]
The only exceptions to those chosen for this analysis
will be Members 9Z5ZG (F) and N66901 (N2). Although
Member F has results at some DYS markers in
Panel 3, he was not tested at five of the 12 markers in
this Panel. The genealogy of Member N2 is not known with
certainty and cannot be used in the analysis.
As
all ready observed in the Part I
Analysis, Member #76234 (A) and a number of other members have the most common allele values
at all 37 markers presented. This most common H37 haplotype, by
deduction, has been designated the Ancestral
Haplotype. Any combination of genetic comparisons of
these specific Members to each other will result in the the same
most recent common
ancestor probabilities.
Genetic
Comparisons
Members A, B,
E1, H, I, J1, M, P, S3, and T1 have equivalent haplotypes —
referred to above as the G1 H37 Modal Haplotype. In the following analysis, Member A will
now be
compared to each member ofG1a and G1b having the H37 haplotype.
Using TIME PREDICTOR1 calculations, a Time
to Most Recent
Common Ancestor
Table (TMRCA) will be created as a result of each comparison.
____________
|
1) |
The time
predictor used for all of the comparisons is
furnished by Family Tree DNA and referred to as FTDNATiP™. The
FTDNATiP™ results are based on the mutation rate study
presented during the 1st International Conference on Genetic
Genealogy, on Oct. 30, 2004. The probabilities calculated take
into consideration the mutation rates for each individual marker
being compared. For more information, click HERE. |
Time
to Most Recent
Common Ancestor
Table (TMRCA)
Time Predictor calculations for each Genetic comparison to A are presented in Table 3.
|
Table
3: Time Predictor Calculations; Genetic Comparisons to Member A
| Gen |
A-B |
A-C |
A-C1 |
A-D |
A-E |
A-E1 |
A-H |
A-I |
A-J |
A-J1 |
A-K |
A-L |
A-L1 |
A-M |
| 10 |
98.89 |
94.05 |
94.48 |
93.61 |
93.61 |
98.89 |
98.89 |
98.89 |
94.50* |
98.89 |
93.61* |
60.79 |
60.79 |
98.89 |
| 11 |
99.29 |
95.84* |
96.17* |
95.50* |
95.50* |
99.29* |
99.29* |
99.29* |
96.19 |
99.29* |
95.50 |
67.72* |
67.72* |
99.29* |
| 12 |
99.55* |
97.10 |
97.36 |
96.84 |
96.84 |
99.55 |
99.55 |
99.55 |
97.37 |
99.55 |
96.84 |
73.75 |
73.75 |
99.55 |
| 13 |
99.71 |
97.99 |
98.19 |
97.79 |
97.79 |
99.71 |
99.71 |
99.71 |
98.20 |
99.71 |
97.79 |
78.88 |
78.88 |
99.71 |
| 20 |
99.99 |
99.86 |
99.83 |
99.83 |
99.83 |
99.99 |
99.99 |
99.99 |
99.88 |
99.99 |
99.83 |
96.31 |
96.31 |
99.99 |
| |
| Gen |
A-M1 |
A-N |
A-N1 |
A-O |
A-P |
P-R |
P-S1 |
P-S3 |
P-T |
P-T1 |
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
94.50 |
94.52 |
94.52 |
94.52 |
----- |
84.12 |
81.29 |
98.89 |
82.43 |
98.89 |
|
|
|
|
| 11 |
96.19 |
96.20* |
96.20* |
96.20* |
99.29* |
88.17* |
85.75* |
99.29* |
86.73* |
99.29* |
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
97.37 |
97.38 |
97.38 |
97.38 |
99.55 |
91.28 |
89.24 |
99.55 |
90.07 |
99.55 |
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
98.20 |
98.20 |
98.20 |
98.20 |
99.71 |
93.62 |
91.94 |
99.71 |
92.64 |
99.71 |
|
|
|
|
| 20 |
99.88 |
99.88 |
99.88 |
99.88 |
99.99 |
99.40 |
99.10 |
99.99 |
99.23 |
99.99 |
|
|
|
|
|
The TMRCA
Table presents the probabilities that Member A will share a common ancestor
with the other members within the
generation presented in the "Gen" column. For example,
those with these H37 Haplotypes were related and
shared a common ancestor who lived within 20 generations. As
presented in the Gen 20 row, all of the values presented are
greater than 96%; well within our confidence
threshold of 80%. The Gen 10 thru 13 rows report the
probability values a common ancestor
lived within the specified generations. The values in Gen rows
10 thru
13 are above the 80%
confidence threshold —
the exception being the A-L comparison. The
genealogy in the Genealogical
Lineage Table clearly reveals Member A, a descendant of
William Stark, Sr., cannot have a common ancestor within 10
generations with Member P, a descendant of Aaron II.
Therefore, the probability
value in Gen
Row 10 for the A-P comparison is not relevant to this
discussion and not presented. However, observe Member P
has the H37 Modal Haplotype. When Member P is compared to Members R, S1,
S3, T, and T1; Gen Row 10 will be relevant and the probabilities
vary from slightly above the confidence threshold of 80% to a
high of 98.89% in the P-S3 and P-T1 H37 Modal Haplotype comparisons.
As presented in
the Genealogical Lineage Table, not all of the persons in this test
population were born in the same generation. Allowances must be made
for generation off-sets. For
the purposes of this analysis, a generation count of 1
will begin with the Father nearest the generation of Aaron I in any comparison of
two individuals. For example, in the
Genealogical
Lineage Table, the
Father of A is nearest Aaron I
in the A-B comparison. Counting the Father of A as 1 and
counting the generations back to Aaron I results in 10
generations. In this example, Aaron I lived within the 11th
generation, yielding a probability of 99.29% Aaron I was their
common ancestor who lived 10 generations before
A. Observe in the
Genealogical
Lineage Table,
Aaron I lived 12 generations before B; resulting in a
probability of 99.71% the A-B comparison shared a common
ancestor within 13 generations. In this comparison,
the smaller probability value resulting from a generation
off-set yields the more pessimistic probability value. The above
presented probability values will use the more pessimistic
probability value in each comparison of Member A. Referring
again to the Genealogical
Lineage Table, by
observation, the Father of A will be equal to, or nearest to, the Generation of
Aaron I in all of the comparisons —
exceptions being the A-J and A-K comparisons; the Fathers of
J and K being one
generation nearer to Aaron I than the father of A.
As expected, comparisons
A-B, A-E1, A-H, A-I, A-M, A-P, P-S3, and P-T1 result in equivalent probabilities of 99.29% they share common ancestor, Aaron I, within 11 generations;
each of these columns being comparisons of A or P to individuals having
the H37 Modal Haplotye. Because the Fathers of J and K are one generation
nearer to Aaron I than the Father of A, the generation
count to Aaron will be 9. The A-J comparison results in a 94.50%
probability their common ancestor, Aaron I, lived within 10
generations. The A-K comparison results in a 93.61% probability.
The
count from Member P to Aaron I is 10 generations. When P is compared to
R, S1, S3, T and T1, Aaron I lived within the 11th generation. The P-R,
P-S1, P-S3, P-T and P-T1 comparisons result in probabilities of 88.17%,
85.75%, 99.29%, 86.73% and 99.29%,
respectively, that they share Aaron I as a common ancestor within the
11th generation. The probabilities they share Aaron II as a
common ancestor within 10 generations is 84.12%, 81.29%, 98.89, 82.43%,
and 98.89%. All of these probabilities are within the confidence
threshold.
The
A-L comparison yields a probability value of 67.72%
they share a common ancestor within 11 generations. This is
below the confidence threshold of 80%. From
the above Genetic Results Table, observe L is genetically closer to C and D;
that is, the L-C and L-D comparisons have a genetic distance of
2; while there is a genetic distance of 3 in the A-L comparison. Suppose
we compare L-C and L-D? The
L-C comparison results in a probability of 86% they share
a common ancestor who lived within 11 generations. The L-D comparison
results in a probability of 86.88% they
share a common ancestor who lived within 11 generations. The following summarizes the probabilities
for these comparisons
within 11 generations:
| A-D = 95.50% |
A-C = 95.84% |
| L-D = 86.88% |
L-C = 86.00% |
| A-L = 67.72% |
A-L = 67.72% |
The
A-D comparison is well within the confidence threshold —
while the L-D comparison results in a lower probability but within the
confidence threshold. Therefore,
if the L-D comparison is within the threshold and the A-D comparison is within the threshold, then we can be
confident A, D, and L share Aaron I as a common ancestor
who lived within the 11th generation. The A-C and L-C comparisons reinforce our confidence.
Because L1 has the same 37 marker Haplotype as L, all comments
relative to L above also apply to L1.
This
H37 Haplotype analysis provides evidence there is a greater than
80%
probability the persons compared to A and P share Aaron I as a common
ancestor, as suggested by the genealogical research.
|
|
Page
9
Appendix
1: Defining
the Ancestral Haplotype of Aaron Stark [1608-1685]
Introduction
The genealogical research suggests Aaron Stark I [1608-1685] was the
common ancestor of all of the Group 1 Members. Using the genetic data, the
triangulation method devised by Charles F. Kerchner, Jr. will be employed
to define the H37 Ancestral Haplotype of Aaron Stark I. (See Charles F. Kerchner, Jr.'s article entitled "Triangulation Method for Deducing the Ancestral
Haplotype in Y-DNA Surname Projects.")
A typical
line of descent
chart looks like a triangle, with the ancestor at the apex, as illustrated
below.
|
Aaron
Stark [1608-1685]
| |
|
/
Aaron Stark, Junior
| |
\
William Stark,
Senior
| |
|
/
Aaron Stark, III |
\
Abiel Stark |
/
William Stark, Jr. |
\
Christopher Stark,
Sr. |
For example,
Aaron Stark [1608-1685] had two sons. If we create a descendant chart, the
shape would be similar to a triangle. The analyzer, by looking from the bottom generation of the chart
towards the ancestor --- from different descendant locations on the
descendant chart --- is triangulating towards the target, the common
ancestor, Aaron Stark [1608-1685]. Kerchner defines this technique as
triangulation.
The triangulation rules are
quite simple and can be stated as follows:
| 1. |
If two
genetically compared males having the same surname are direct
line descendants of two known and different sons of a father --- and
--- they both have the same allele value at a specific DYS marker,
then by deduction, we presume the father of the two sons had the same
allele value at that DYS marker. |
| 2. |
If
two genetically compared males having the same Surname are direct line descendants of two known and different sons
of a father --- and
--- they both have the same allele value at a specific DYS marker,
then by deduction, we presume all individuals in their respective
descendant branches from the Father have the same allele value at that DYS Marker. |
| 3. |
If two
genetically compared males having the same surname are direct
line descendants of two known and different sons of a father --- and
--- neither has the same value at a specific DYS marker, then the
allele value of the father cannot be determined; nor can the allele
value of individuals in the respective descendant branches be determined;
the exception in each branch being the known allele value of the
genetically compared Males. |
The
Genetic Results Table indicates Member
76234 (A) has the most common allele values at all 37 of the H37 markers.
Member A is a descendant of William Stark (Senior) [1664-1734]. Member
98140 (P) also has the most common allele values at all of the H37
markers. Member P is a descendant of Aaron Stark II [1654-1701]. William
and Aaron II are two known and different sons of Aaron Stark I
[1608-1685]. When Members A and P are compared to each other, they are a
perfect match over all 37 markers.
Therefore, according to Rule 1, by deduction, we must presume the father
of these sons, Aaron Stark I [1608-1685], had the same allele values at
all 37 DYS markers. For the purposes of this analysis, this H37 Haplotype
has been assigned to be the Ancestral Haplotype of Aaron Stark I
[1608-1685].
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Page 10
Appendix
2: Haplotype and DYS Marker Life Expectancy Calculations Introduction
Mutation Rate: The rate at which a
genetic marker or
haplotype mutates
or changes over time; expressed as a decimal value or a percentage. Commercial
DNA testing laboratories use an average haplotype mutation rate most often
given as 0.002, 0.003, and 0.004. Depending on the study, these average
mutations for all of the markers in a haplotype applies to the general male
population as a whole.
Surname projects
having genealogical research of
high quality with one common ancestor identified as the progenitor —
can have average mutation rates that do not agree with the literature.
The number of participants and the genealogy
of the descendants of their most recent common ancestor is of sufficient quality; it becomes possible to calculate the average mutation rate for various
haplotypes and DYS Markers using Kerchner's equations.
The mathematical model is based on an article by Charles F. Kerchner entitled,
"An Overview and Discussion of Various DNA
Mutation Rates and DNA Haplotype Mutation Rates."
Haplotype
Mutation Rates (Mathematical Model)
Each
Unique Transmission Event (birth) that occurred after
the members common ancestor has been totaled in the Genealogical
Lineage Table. For each birth, there can be two possible outcomes at each
marker. Either there was a mutation or there was not a
mutation at the marker being examined. With this information, we can calculate an
average mutation rate for
each of the H12, H25, and H37 Ancestral Haplotypes using the equations of Charles
F. Kerchner as follows:
Mutation
Rate = (Total haplotype mutations) divided by the (Total Births) times
the (Total # markers in the
haplotype)
Then for R=
[Mutation Rate]; K= [Total haplotype mutations]; B= [Total Births];
and M=[Total # markers in the haplotype]
we have
the equation:
R=K/B*M [Average
Ancestral Haplotype Mutation
Rate]
(1)
Given R,
then:
Probability
(new emerging haplotype) +Probability (old haplotype)=1
Probability
(old haplotype) = (1-R)M
Probability
(new emerging haplotype) = 1 – (1-R)M
Then if
P(N)
= Probability
(new emerging haplotype); we have the equation:
P(N)=1
- (1 - R)M
(2)
A
new
haplotype can emerge at any time; but the above estimates the historically
implied life expectancy of the Ancestral Haplotype, as defined
by the genetic test results of Aaron's male descendants with the surname
Stark --- and --- the genealogical data to define the number of generations. To convert this result to the
number of generations, we simply divide 1 by P(N) obtaining
the following equation:
(Average
Life Expectancy of Ancestral
Haplotype) = 1
/ P(N)=1 / [1 - (1 -R)M] (Stated
as the # of Generations)
(3)
This will be
the estimated average life expectancy before a
new haplotype will emerge within the perimeters of the genetic and
genealogical data provided. Equation 3 has been used to calculate the average life expectancy
of the
H12, H25, and H37 Haplotypes.
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