|
Page
3
Genetic
Comparisons
The
Part I analysis revealed the members with 37 marker
Haplotypes had nine unique haplotypes. Members A, B, F,
E1, J,
and L had equivalent haplotypes —
referred to above as the Bookmark
Haplotype. In the following analysis, Member A (76234) will be
compared to Members B through N —
Member A having the Bookmark Haplotype.
Using TIME PREDICTOR1 calculations, a Time
to Most Recent
Common Ancestor
Table (TMRCA) will be created as a result of each comparison.
____________
|
1) |
The time
predictor used for all of the comparisons is
furnished by Family Tree DNA and referred to as FTDNATiP™. The
FTDNATiP™ results are based on the mutation rate study
presented during the 1st International Conference on Genetic
Genealogy, on Oct. 30, 2004. The probabilities calculated take
into consideration the mutation rates for each individual marker
being compared. For more information, click HERE. |
Time
to Most Recent
Common Ancestor
Table (TMRCA)
Time Predictor calculations for each Genetic comparison to A are presented in Table 3.
|
Table
3: Time Predictor Calculations; Genetic Comparisons to Member A
| Gen |
A-B |
A-C |
A-D |
A-E |
A-E1 |
A-F |
A-G |
A-H |
A-I |
A-J |
A-K |
A-L |
A-M |
A-N |
| 10 |
98.89 |
94.05 |
93.61 |
93.61 |
98.89 |
98.89 |
94.50 |
93.61 |
60.79 |
98.89 |
94.52 |
98.89 |
84.12 |
82.43 |
| 11 |
99.29 |
95.84 |
95.50 |
95.50 |
99.29 |
99.29 |
96.19 |
95.50 |
67.72 |
99.29 |
96.20 |
99.29 |
88.17 |
86.73 |
| 12 |
99.55 |
97.10 |
96.84 |
96.84 |
99.55 |
99.55 |
97.37 |
96.84 |
73.75 |
99.55 |
97.38 |
99.55 |
91.28 |
90.07 |
| 13 |
99.71 |
97.99 |
97.79 |
97.79 |
99.71 |
99.71 |
98.20 |
97.79 |
78.88 |
99.71 |
98.20 |
99.71 |
93.62 |
92.64 |
| 20 |
99.99 |
99.86 |
99.83 |
99.83 |
99.99 |
99.99 |
99.88 |
99.83 |
96.31 |
99.99 |
99.88 |
99.99 |
99.40 |
99.23 |
|
Tables
3 presents the TMRCA probabilities that A will share a common ancestor
with B through N within the
generation presented in the "Gen" column. For example,
Part I reported those with 37 marker Haplotypes were related and
shared a common ancestor who lived within 20 generations. As
presented in the Gen 20 row, all of the values presented are
greater than 99%; well within the confidence
threshold of 85%. The Gen 10 thru 13 rows report the
probability values a common ancestor
lived within these generations. The values in Gen rows 11 thru
13 are above the 85%
confidence threshold —
the exception being the A-I comparison. In Gen row 10, the
exceptions are the A-I, A-M, and A-N comparisons.
As presented in Table 2, not all of the persons in this test
population were born in the same generation. Allowances must be made
for the generation off-sets. For
the purposes of this analysis, a generation count of 1
will begin with the Father nearest the generation of Aaron I in any comparison of
two individuals. For example, in Table 2 the
Father of A is nearest Aaron I
in the A-B comparison. Counting the Father of A as 1 and
counting the generations back to Aaron I results in 10
generations. In this example, Aaron I lived within the 11th
generation, yielding a probability of 99.29% Aaron I was their
common ancestor who lived 10 generations before
A. Observe in Table 2,
Aaron I lived 12 generations before B; resulting in a
probability of 99.71% the A-B comparison shared a common
ancestor within 13 generations.
In each
comparison, this method of determining the generation in which
Aaron I lived yields the more pessimistic probability value when
there is a generation off-set. By
observation, the Father of A will be equal to, or nearest to, the Generation of
Aaron I in all of the Table 2 comparisons
—
exceptions being the A-G and
A-H comparisons; the Fathers of G and H being one
generation nearer to Aaron I.
As expected, comparisons
A-B, A-F, A-J,
and A-L result in equivalent probabilities of 99.29% they share common ancestor, Aaron I, within 11 generations;
each of these columns being comparisons of A to individuals having
the Bookmark
Haplotype. Because the Fathers of G and H are one generation
nearer to Aaron I than the Father of A, the generation
count to Aaron will be 9. The A-G comparison results in a 94.50%
probability their common ancestor, Aaron I, lived within 10
generations. The A-H comparison results in a 93.61% probability.
The
count from A to Aaron I is 10 generations. When A is compared to
M and N, Aaron I lived within the 11th generation. The A-M and
A-N comparisons result in probabilities of 88.17% and 86.73%,
respectively, they share Aaron I as a common ancestor within the
11th generation; both being within the confidence threshold. The
genealogy in Table 2 clearly shows A
cannot have Aaron I as a common ancestor with either M or N
within 10 generations. Therefore, the probability values in Gen
Row 10 for the A-M and A-N comparisons are not relevant to this
discussion.
The
A-I comparison yields a probability value of 67.72%
they share a common ancestor within 11 generations. This is
below the confidence threshold of 85%. From
the above Table 1, observe I is genetically closer to C and D;
that is, the I-C and I-D comparisons have a genetic distance of
2; while there is a genetic distance of 3 in the A-I comparison. Suppose
we compare I-C and I-D? The
I-C comparison results in a probability of 86% they share
a common ancestor who lived within 11 generations. The I-D comparison
results in a probability of 86.88% they
share a common ancestor who lived within 11 generations. The following summarizes the probabilities
for these comparisons
within 11 generations:
| A-D = 95.50% |
A-C = 95.84% |
| I-D = 86.88% |
I-C = 86.00% |
| A-I = 67.72% |
A-I = 67.72% |
The
A-D comparison is well within the confidence threshold;
while the I-D comparison is border line but within the threshold. Therefore,
if the I-D comparison is within the threshold and the A-D comparison is within the threshold, then we can be
confident A, D, and I share Aaron I as a common ancestor
who lived within the 11th generation. The A-C and I-C comparisons reinforce our confidence.
This
analysis provides evidence there is a greater than 85%
probability the persons compared to A share Aaron I as a common
ancestor, as suggested by the genealogical research.
|